2 thoughts on “What is the trend of gold in the future?”
Norma
The future trend of gold, the main factors of the current trend of gold, the main factors that affect the current trend of the gold price 1. The quality of the economic situation and the flow of risk aversion funds to the global financial system Once unstable, or the process of economic recovery, Twitching will cause risk aversion of funds to rise. Among the global security assets, most of the US dollars are ranked first, and the status of gold avoidance is not as good as the US dollar. Therefore, if the economic recovery has a twists and turns, such as negative economic data in major economies, it will trigger the hedging funds to escape from the commodity to the US dollar; in turn, if the global economic recovery is stable, the economic data is better than expected, and the risk aversion funds will flow out again. The US dollar, turning to high -risk investment markets such as commodities. Therefore, it can be said that the quality of the economic situation and gold are currently positive. 2. The correlation between the trend of gold and the US dollar Due to the pricing of gold in the US dollar, the negative correlation between the gold and the US dollar index in history is very obvious. Since this century, the correlation change diagram of the London Gold and the US dollar index has been found through observation that in these nine years, the annual correlation of gold and the US dollar has experienced three departments. Both the US dollar entered the oscillating interval. During this time, its correlation was close to zero; the second time was in 2005, the United States entered the interest rate hike cycle, which caused the US dollar to rebound strongly, and the price of gold also increased sharply under the action of supply and demand and fundamentals. For the first time, the US dollar appeared positively, with a correlation coefficient of 0.65; the third time was that after the Fed reduced the US dollar to near zero interest rate on December 16, 2008, the relative holding cost of gold was reduced. Both are asset -free assets. From the end of 2008 to February 20, 2009, a situation of "coexistence" was performed, with a righteous relationship of 0.64. However, due to the gradual stability of the global financial system, the economic recovery situation has been clear, and gold and the US dollar have restored a negative relationship. In the days when the gold plummeted from February 24th to March 3 this year, the related coefficients of gold and the US dollar reached -0.99, and the rapid rise in gold from July 9th to July 15th. The coefficient is also high -0.89. It can be said that most of the trend of gold in recent months can be explained by the trend of the dollar. In the future, with the gradual improvement of the economy, gold will continue to maintain strong negative correlation with the US dollar. As the U.S. government launched a large -scale market rescue plan and economic stimulus plan in the early stage, the US fiscal deficit was huge, and the pressure on the US dollar had a large depreciation pressure. In addition, the diversified sound of the global reserve currency also pressure the US dollar. This means that gold is more likely to rise in the future. However, the author also believes that because there are currently no suitable currency to replace the US dollar status, although the US dollar has a huge upward pressure, the downlink space is also limited. The future trend also needs to continue to observe the trend of monetary policy and economic recovery of various countries. 3. Whether inflation expects whether the loose monetary policy implemented by governments around the world has injected a lot of liquidity into the market. As the expectations of economic recovery increased, funds gradually flowed to the market, which brought greater challenges to government monetary policy decisions. If the governments of various countries cannot timely change the policy orientation from loosening to moderately tight, inflation may occur. As a traditional inflation -preserving asset, gold and other commodities such as gold have greatly benefited from inflation expectations. However, if inflation is expected to fail to fulfill, excessive rising gold will go through great corrections. 4. During the financial crisis, the fundamentals of gold supply and demand, the financial attributes of gold have greatly exceeded their commodity attributes. Therefore, the correlation between the trend of gold in the past is greater than the fundamentals of supply and demand. However, with the improvement of the real economy, the influence of golden supply and demand will gradually enlarge the impact of the judgment of the gold trend. 3. The comprehensive outlook of the future trend of gold conducts a comprehensive analysis and comparison of the above-mentioned major investment banks, and combines the first part of the author's understanding of the main factors of gold. Look at the view for a long time. First of all, the function of gold as a hedge asset has been greatly weakened, and its risk aversion function obviously lost to the US dollar. Therefore, in the process of economic recovery that may be quite twists and turns in the future, the trend of gold will also experience some oscillations. Secondly, the author expects that gold and the US dollar will maintain a negative relationship in the future. Therefore, the depreciation pressure of the US dollar will support the high position of gold. During the flat economic recovery process, it is always the status of a shelter. Therefore, before the economy is fully recovered, gold should not be expected to rise significantly. Again, inflation expectations are indeed another assistant to support the price of gold, but whether the actual inflation occurs, it still needs to observe the further measures of the Federal Reserve and the economic recovery situation. The above three points are the main reasons why the author believes that the gold will oscillate the interval in the short term. From the middle and long term, with the final improvement of the economic situation, the recovery of the real economic demand, coupled with the incidental avoidance status and returning to the long -term depreciation track, the commodity bull market will start again, and gold is expected to gradually rise.
The future trend of gold, the main factors of the current trend of gold, the main factors that affect the current trend of the gold price 1. The quality of the economic situation and the flow of risk aversion funds to the global financial system Once unstable, or the process of economic recovery, Twitching will cause risk aversion of funds to rise. Among the global security assets, most of the US dollars are ranked first, and the status of gold avoidance is not as good as the US dollar. Therefore, if the economic recovery has a twists and turns, such as negative economic data in major economies, it will trigger the hedging funds to escape from the commodity to the US dollar; in turn, if the global economic recovery is stable, the economic data is better than expected, and the risk aversion funds will flow out again. The US dollar, turning to high -risk investment markets such as commodities. Therefore, it can be said that the quality of the economic situation and gold are currently positive. 2. The correlation between the trend of gold and the US dollar Due to the pricing of gold in the US dollar, the negative correlation between the gold and the US dollar index in history is very obvious. Since this century, the correlation change diagram of the London Gold and the US dollar index has been found through observation that in these nine years, the annual correlation of gold and the US dollar has experienced three departments. Both the US dollar entered the oscillating interval. During this time, its correlation was close to zero; the second time was in 2005, the United States entered the interest rate hike cycle, which caused the US dollar to rebound strongly, and the price of gold also increased sharply under the action of supply and demand and fundamentals. For the first time, the US dollar appeared positively, with a correlation coefficient of 0.65; the third time was that after the Fed reduced the US dollar to near zero interest rate on December 16, 2008, the relative holding cost of gold was reduced. Both are asset -free assets. From the end of 2008 to February 20, 2009, a situation of "coexistence" was performed, with a righteous relationship of 0.64. However, due to the gradual stability of the global financial system, the economic recovery situation has been clear, and gold and the US dollar have restored a negative relationship. In the days when the gold plummeted from February 24th to March 3 this year, the related coefficients of gold and the US dollar reached -0.99, and the rapid rise in gold from July 9th to July 15th. The coefficient is also high -0.89. It can be said that most of the trend of gold in recent months can be explained by the trend of the dollar. In the future, with the gradual improvement of the economy, gold will continue to maintain strong negative correlation with the US dollar. As the U.S. government launched a large -scale market rescue plan and economic stimulus plan in the early stage, the US fiscal deficit was huge, and the pressure on the US dollar had a large depreciation pressure. In addition, the diversified sound of the global reserve currency also pressure the US dollar. This means that gold is more likely to rise in the future. However, the author also believes that because there are currently no suitable currency to replace the US dollar status, although the US dollar has a huge upward pressure, the downlink space is also limited. The future trend also needs to continue to observe the trend of monetary policy and economic recovery of various countries. 3. Whether inflation expects whether the loose monetary policy implemented by governments around the world has injected a lot of liquidity into the market. As the expectations of economic recovery increased, funds gradually flowed to the market, which brought greater challenges to government monetary policy decisions. If the governments of various countries cannot timely change the policy orientation from loosening to moderately tight, inflation may occur. As a traditional inflation -preserving asset, gold and other commodities such as gold have greatly benefited from inflation expectations. However, if inflation is expected to fail to fulfill, excessive rising gold will go through great corrections. 4. During the financial crisis, the fundamentals of gold supply and demand, the financial attributes of gold have greatly exceeded their commodity attributes. Therefore, the correlation between the trend of gold in the past is greater than the fundamentals of supply and demand. However, with the improvement of the real economy, the influence of golden supply and demand will gradually enlarge the impact of the judgment of the gold trend. 3. The comprehensive outlook of the future trend of gold conducts a comprehensive analysis and comparison of the above-mentioned major investment banks, and combines the first part of the author's understanding of the main factors of gold. Look at the view for a long time. First of all, the function of gold as a hedge asset has been greatly weakened, and its risk aversion function obviously lost to the US dollar. Therefore, in the process of economic recovery that may be quite twists and turns in the future, the trend of gold will also experience some oscillations. Secondly, the author expects that gold and the US dollar will maintain a negative relationship in the future. Therefore, the depreciation pressure of the US dollar will support the high position of gold. During the flat economic recovery process, it is always the status of a shelter. Therefore, before the economy is fully recovered, gold should not be expected to rise significantly. Again, inflation expectations are indeed another assistant to support the price of gold, but whether the actual inflation occurs, it still needs to observe the further measures of the Federal Reserve and the economic recovery situation. The above three points are the main reasons why the author believes that the gold will oscillate the interval in the short term. From the middle and long term, with the final improvement of the economic situation, the recovery of the real economic demand, coupled with the incidental avoidance status and returning to the long -term depreciation track, the commodity bull market will start again, and gold is expected to gradually rise.
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